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      New 30 year normals     

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04/19/2021 06:01AM  
Most probably don't know what the TV gal/guy - radio person (this dates me :O) etc, means when they say yesterday was slightly above/below avg or the month was a certain amount in F below or above "avg". To be honest- there is no "avg" or 'normal'- in climate or long term weather as it's constantly changing and has been for 1000's of years and will continue to do so. It comes down to how you want to measure it- just like anything else. But "officially" it's measured in 30 year increments. Being we just entered a new decade in 2021- new normals for avg temp are about to come out. The decade of 2011-2020 will replace the decade of 1981-1990 and thus leave 1991 through 2020 as the "official" 30 year normals (avg's) for temps (and precip) SO what changed? Here is a preliminary outlook--- the same goes with precip (rainfall and melted snow) . HAZARD--- If one wants to read into the following as warming/cooling climate for certain locales (and obviously more warm than cool) I would hedge agst it. So many variables involved in this data that are suspect climate wise long term (past 30 years) , but I only share them as they are what you will hear as "official"

--- If I had time more to publish old weather records/ to rather new ----- - within the 30 year term- and adding 10 and subtracting 10- I would get into the why's or whats--










 
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Canoearoo
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04/19/2021 10:43AM  
So Minnesota is slightly warmer and slightly more rain. Sound ok by me lol
 
04/21/2021 01:50PM  
I have often wondered if a major drop in temps of over 30 degrees as we had over a month ago in St. Louis would reduce the average temp for the date and then be reported as a new lower average next year for that date. I think I now have my answer in the new data generated and tabulated each decade. Should we have such a cold snap each year on the same date, it would be reported that "normal"/average temps would show a decrease from say the previous date before climbing upward again. These events would be quite rare I would think. Do you know of any?
 
04/22/2021 06:42AM  
bwcadan: "I have often wondered if a major drop in temps of over 30 degrees as we had over a month ago in St. Louis would reduce the average temp for the date and then be reported as a new lower average next year for that date. I think I now have my answer in the new data generated and tabulated each decade. Should we have such a cold snap each year on the same date, it would be reported that "normal"/average temps would show a decrease from say the previous date before climbing upward again. These events would be quite rare I would think. Do you know of any?"

Very good question.

Happens all the time when you look at the actual raw data before it gets rounded and adjusted slightly to make it appear what most think, smooth curve- Especially since you only have 30 dates to avg- for say April 22nd- 10 from the each of the 3 decades being used- even a person not versed well in math is going to understand no way will it be a linear with a smooth curve all the time throughout the year in dealing with weather. It's very difficult to find something that is not like this on the internet -- a smooth curve that most think is the case for avg temps throughout a year- (at least for the Midwest area of the USA) a rise up in avg temps in the later Winter/Spring / early Summer and than a fall starting late Summer into mid-Winter.


However- when you've been around as long as I have- you have your ways. The following chart lists the same as the above - but in raw format before adjusting. You clearly can see the avg temps jump around quite significantly even in short time span- April 18th and Feb 4th, DEC 27th, and of course leap years- FEb29th really stand out showing it's not a linear curve as most think. BWCADAN will really like this--- (I can do the same for St Louis if you want or any location's RAW #'s)
 
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