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thegildedgopher
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06/12/2024 09:31PM  
Sorry this initially posted empty, slip of the thumb.

We have 4 days at a cabin on Sag starting this coming Monday. The forecast looks like rain and possible thunderstorms every day. We go to fish and don’t mind getting wet, but don’t want to be out in storms.

We won’t be out $ if we cancel, we would just reschedule and not lose deposit. I guess I’m not sure where to draw the line and when to make the call.

What would you all do?
 
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06/13/2024 01:10PM  
If you can reschedule I’d consider… but storms don’t always happen.
I’d probably go… might have some awesome fishing!! And peace because of all the people that stayed home because it might rain.
 
06/13/2024 04:39PM  
Tough one, but the high temps look pretty similar all your days with no drastic changes or especially large drops in high temps/no large low pressure coming in. This leads me to think that the rain will be more of popcorn showers in the daytime. That is what they are getting now/today.

Edit, we have been getting storms almost every or every day this summer. I have done 3 BW trips so far this year. Looks like it is the way it will be this summer. You will be getting storms some of your days.
 
analyzer
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06/13/2024 06:21PM  
thegildedgopher: "Sorry this initially posted empty, slip of the thumb.

We have 4 days at a cabin on Sag starting this coming Monday. The forecast looks like rain and possible thunderstorms every day. We go to fish and don’t mind getting wet, but don’t want to be out in storms.

We won’t be out $ if we cancel, we would just reschedule and not lose deposit. I guess I’m not sure where to draw the line and when to make the call.

What would you all do?"


We'll be on sag a week from saturday, and are watching the weather as well.

It's harder when there are 4 of us. My wife is a flight attendant, and we can fly anywhere in the country for free. One year, when it was just the two of us going to the BWCA (on a Thursday), I suggested to my wife, leading up to the trip, that lets wait until wednesday to pack, and see how the forecast looks. If it looks like sht, we'll just go somewhere else in the country, where it's not raining.

We've got it down to where we can pack for a trip in 4 or 5 hours, so we just waited until the day before to decide. Well, the forecast showed 4 straight days of soakers, with heavy wind, gusts to 35 mph type of thing. So we went to San Fran, rented a car, drove up to the oregon border to see the red woods, and crater lake, and drove back through sacramento etc. It was a very nice 2nd option.

With this trip, we're taking a couple guys who haven't been to the boundary waters in 30 years, it's going to be a little tougher to talk them out of going. But it's kinda looking like rain every day.
 
06/13/2024 06:52PM  
We went up mid May- after and during lots of rain and high winds and cool temps (flood warnings too). We did the Tuscarora loop. If it would have been just my husband and I we might have rescheduled. But my son and his wife flew in from Idaho, so we still went. And embraced the challenge! We did have 1 nice day before the temps were supposed to drop below 40 with yet more rain, so we called it good the next morning and went out 1 day early. It’s always hard to make those decisions!
 
06/13/2024 07:38PM  
Well if it's anything at all like Michigan, chance of thunderstorms means blue skies:-). I would go, there's no guarantee the weather will be better the next time.
 
TaylorRN
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06/13/2024 08:32PM  
This year was the first year I called off a trip because of weather. I was suppose to head in on May22, called for 2.5 inches of rain over the next several days with lows in the 30s. I made a last minute decision to stay home and spend some time with the kids. As much as I enjoyed my time at home I regretted calling off my trip. Last time I cancel a trip due to weather. The rain they got this year put an end to the four year drought.
 
tumblehome
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06/14/2024 06:09AM  
TaylorRN: "This year was the first year I called off a trip because of weather. I was suppose to head in on May22, called for 2.5 inches of rain over the next several days with lows in the 30s. "


I remember that. Good call on cancelling.

I generally would never cancel a trip due to weather in the summer. Forecasts for rain or storms does not mean there will be a storm overhead the whole time. I love the rain in the summer. Without it, the rest of the BWCA and Quetico would burn. Don’t let chances for rain cancel the whole event!
Tom
 
06/14/2024 06:36AM  
TaylorRN: "This year was the first year I called off a trip because of weather. I was suppose to head in on May22, called for 2.5 inches of rain over the next several days with lows in the 30s. I made a last minute decision to stay home and spend some time with the kids. As much as I enjoyed my time at home I regretted calling off my trip. Last time I cancel a trip due to weather. The rain they got this year put an end to the four year drought. "


Indeed. As I recall, May 21 was very wet, May 22 was also pretty wet but we traveled hard that day. May 23 was dry and May 24 had some rain. The wind was the bigger issue...
 
BdubyaCA
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06/14/2024 07:39AM  
the one thing you know about a forecast is its wrong. I'd never cancel a trip due to the potential of bad weather. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
 
06/14/2024 10:39AM  
I don't. Rain is part of the deal; look at it as a challenge to figure out how to be comfortable and connected to nature even when it's wet out. Often, the weather changes or is isolated and not widespread. Just go.
 
06/14/2024 11:08AM  
I've never canceled a trip, but I've cut a few short due to rain and never regretted it. Always avoided storms or multi-day rain as a result. Sometimes I feel lame for doing it, but the reality is that if I'm just going to be sitting under a tarp all day long with nothing to do, I'd be happier at home. It just depends if it's rain in the middle of a trip, or rain at the end of the trip. If it's in the middle, with high likelihood of good weather after, I'll stick it out. If it's at the end, an early exit usually makes sense. I had a trip in fall 2022 where we had 8 days planned, and the first 5 were absolutely perfect, but the following 3 were forecasted to be moderate rain pretty much the whole time. We agreed to exit early and look back on that trip very fondly because of the amazing weather. This past October on the other hand had 3 days of nice weather and 6 days of on and off rain and fairly high winds and cold temps. The retrospective group sentiment about that October trip is less rosy. lol.

TaylorRN: "This year was the first year I called off a trip because of weather. I was suppose to head in on May22, called for 2.5 inches of rain over the next several days with lows in the 30s. I made a last minute decision to stay home and spend some time with the kids. As much as I enjoyed my time at home I regretted calling off my trip. Last time I cancel a trip due to weather. The rain they got this year put an end to the four year drought. "


This year I had an 8 day bucket list loop planned for May 18th, and saw all that rain in the forecast as well. As a result, my friend and I switched up our plans and did a long weekend at Wood Lake. Kept it easy, low commitment, and quick exit if needed. I kept tabs on the weather up there after coming home and was confident we made the right call. We had a good time but I was still a bit sad about having to delay the bucket list trip.

I also just shortened my 8 day solo (June 8 entry) as the clear and sunny forecast turned to, surprise surprise, more rain. With the big storm that just blew through, I'm glad I wasn't up there, but I still lament leaving early, as there seem to be gaps of decent weather in between the rain. That's the issue though; you don't get much time, and the rain is pretty much a constant threat. With the high winds and on-and-off rain, I figured I'd be better served saving my vacation time than sitting alone under a tarp the majority of the time, wishing I could be on the water or at home.
 
thegildedgopher
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06/14/2024 01:48PM  
Appreciate the feedback everyone.

To clarify I am 100% good with rain. And the forecast seems to be improving so that’s good. What I don’t want is to be shore bound with thunderstorms and big winds every single day. At this point we are definitely planning to go.
 
tumblehome
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06/14/2024 07:00PM  
thegildedgopher: "Appreciate the feedback everyone.


To clarify I am 100% good with rain. And the forecast seems to be improving so that’s good. What I don’t want is to be shore bound with thunderstorms and big winds every single day. At this point we are definitely planning to go."



I just checked the forecast and there is a high potential for severe thunderstorms Monday, Tue, and into Wed.
Now I’m not saying cancel. But I’m saying it’s worth a conversation about what to do when the storms come.
On the left side of the picture you will see Seagull Lake which s the closest to you and you can read over to the storm risk and times.
If it was me I would still go and be sky aware.
Tom

 
06/14/2024 07:47PM  
I canceled in the winter when the forecast was for -35 degrees F. and a foot of snow predicted.
Camped out -35 degrees F. more than once, but no blizzard.
 
06/14/2024 09:10PM  
tumblehome: "
thegildedgopher: "Appreciate the feedback everyone.



To clarify I am 100% good with rain. And the forecast seems to be improving so that’s good. What I don’t want is to be shore bound with thunderstorms and big winds every single day. At this point we are definitely planning to go."




I just checked the forecast and there is a high potential for severe thunderstorms Monday, Tue, and into Wed.
Now I’m not saying cancel. But I’m saying it’s worth a conversation about what to do when the storms come.
On the left side of the picture you will see Seagull Lake which s the closest to you and you can read over to the storm risk and times.
If it was me I would still go and be sky aware.
Tom


"


Tom, welcome back - tell us about your trip!

On our May trip, our mistake was not dialing back our travel when weather conditions got tough. We did the miles and guys made their flights, but we paid a price.
 
06/15/2024 12:15PM  
thegildedgopher: "Sorry this initially posted empty, slip of the thumb.

We have 4 days at a cabin on Sag starting this coming Monday. The forecast looks like rain and possible thunderstorms every day. We go to fish and don’t mind getting wet, but don’t want to be out in storms.

We won’t be out $ if we cancel, we would just reschedule and not lose deposit. I guess I’m not sure where to draw the line and when to make the call.

What would you all do?"

Out of consideration for the resort owner, you need to keep your reservation. In my former profession, the golf industry, marginal and early weather forecasts could cripple a golf courses potential to make an income due to players canceling their tee times at the last minute. There are a finite number of days in both the summer camping and golf seasons. Please respect your reservations as a late cancellation can really negatively impact a small business. The weather is an uncontrollable variable that should be tolerated with proper planning, not avoided.
 
Canoearoo
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06/15/2024 12:22PM  
After 3 days of cold rain of 40F, we quit. But now-a-days it might be 2 days. Cold and wet is not fun.
 
thegildedgopher
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06/15/2024 02:29PM  
MacCamper: "
thegildedgopher: "Sorry this initially posted empty, slip of the thumb.


We have 4 days at a cabin on Sag starting this coming Monday. The forecast looks like rain and possible thunderstorms every day. We go to fish and don’t mind getting wet, but don’t want to be out in storms.


We won’t be out $ if we cancel, we would just reschedule and not lose deposit. I guess I’m not sure where to draw the line and when to make the call.


What would you all do?"

Out of consideration for the resort owner, you need to keep your reservation. In my former profession, the golf industry, marginal and early weather forecasts could cripple a golf courses potential to make an income due to players canceling their tee times at the last minute. There are a finite number of days in both the summer camping and golf seasons. Please respect your reservations as a late cancellation can really negatively impact a small business. The weather is an uncontrollable variable that should be tolerated with proper planning, not avoided."


I appreciate are the sentiment. I have a great relationship with our resort owner, they don’t even require a deposit. We’ve already communicated and agreed that if it doesn’t work out I would rebook later this summer as they have some availability still. Our resort is only accessible by boat trip across big water, and they don’t want us taking unnecessary risks to reach the cabin either. As I said, I won’t be canceling due to rain— but if prolonged storms are a factor.
 
OMGitsKa
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06/15/2024 03:11PM  
Looks like fishing weather
 
06/16/2024 05:55AM  
Best wishes on a successful trip. My three week adventure, late May into early June, in the Quetico was as wet, windy and cool as I have experienced. You are fortunate to have such a fine relationship with your resort owner.
 
thegildedgopher
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06/16/2024 08:35AM  
OMGitsKa: "Looks like fishing weather"


Yeah, it’s gotten better. Definitely going. A few days ago it was showing thunder storms every day, now that seems to be confined to Tuesday. So, green light.
 
analyzer
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06/16/2024 09:58AM  
thegildedgopher: "
OMGitsKa: "Looks like fishing weather"



Yeah, it’s gotten better. Definitely going. A few days ago it was showing thunder storms every day, now that seems to be confined to Tuesday. So, green light."


Glad you still get to go.

We're still on the fence for our Saturday Sag entry. It keeps showing a block of 3 straight days of rain, it just moves them back n forth a little. Some days it shows it Sun - Tues, and other times it's Friday - Monday. At one point, it was showing 11 straight days of rain in Ely.

I don't mind an occasional shower, but if it's going to be multiple all days soakers, i'd rather reschedule. I was there once for an 18 day trip, and it rained 16 of those 18 days, and some days it never let up. I'm getting old, and don't really care to repeat that experience.
 
ockycamper
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06/16/2024 10:40AM  
We have never canceled a trip. However. . .

When they had a fire ban, most of our group dropped out. We typically take 15-20 men (divided into four groups). That year we took 4. Two days before we arrived they dropped the fire ban

Several years ago we were going the last week of September. Weather forecasts were bad. We only took two groups of four each. When the first group got to Seagull they pushed off from Seagull Outfitters and it was a snow storm. The second group arrived on Monday and it was cold but not snowing. That week there were repeated times of sleet, snow, rain and freezing temps. The first group gave up and went home 3 days early. In my group one of the guys built a "super shelter" he had learned in boy scouts. The first pit was turned into an oven, tarps were hung above and all sides, and chairs moved into the shelter. It was snowing outside, but inside the guys were in T shirts, cooking, eating and having a great time. It was our best trip in 16 years,
 
NEIowapaddler
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06/16/2024 06:25PM  
I'm a solo tripper, so for me it's a simpler, although still not easy, decision. If the weather looks so miserable that I'm not going to enjoy being out there, I pull the plug. I don't mind a little rain, but multiple days of soaking rain or thunderstorms, or really high winds that make paddling dangerous, would be enough for me to reschedule a trip.
 
06/16/2024 07:31PM  
I have a canoeing buddy whose advice is "don't ever change plans based on the weather forecast."

We hiked the Pictured Rocks Trail 45 miles in mid-May. Based on the forecast, I was ready to cancel. The hiking weather was perfect all week.

Just make sure you have a "bail out plan".
 
thegildedgopher
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06/20/2024 09:01PM  
Post-trip update: We went on the trip. We fished 24 hours in a 2-day period. We got soaked to the bone and ran out of dry clothes. One day the bilge pump in our boat ran for 7 minutes straight. Still, No regrets whatsoever.
 
06/20/2024 11:03PM  
I call it when conditions are as they are now. Just canceled my June 22 permit.
 
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