Looking for some guidance - first time going into the BWCA.

Have a trip planned for 9/15-9/18 to Perent out of Hog Creek. The noaa forecast for both Isabella and Tofte currently projects 2-4+ inches of rain Thursday - Saturday with possible flooding and seems like it might rain the entire trip aside from Saturday. Gusts as high as 25 mph.

Is this too much? Is it common for this type of forecast to be accurate? Have rain gear and tarps

Kind of a toss up, as I see it. Here in Wisconsin, we just endured four straight days of non-stop rain. It would have put a pretty big damper on any enjoyment if we had been on a canoe trip. It can't rain like that in the BW, can it? LOL

A little rain shouldn't be a trip killer. You'll still be out in the wilderness and maybe fishing and generally enjoying yourselves. Take the trip, wear plenty of layers, along with your rain gear as needed, and be flexible. Come out early if you have to.

Btw, great moniker you came up with. Register with the website and become a member. It's a good group here.

I'd be a little skeptical. So much can change in a few days. If I based my decision on a forecast to go on a trip or not, I'd never leave the house.

If I were in your shoes I would cancel. You don't win any prizes for being miserable, soaked, and wind swept.

You could always camp at sawbill or somewhere similar and do day trips as the weather allows.

But constant rain on a point to point route with strong winds on your first trip? Nope, I would not do that.

I am finalizing a trip starting 9/26 and am watching the weather. If nasty I might cancel or more likely do some truck camping adding day paddles and hikes. A summer rain is wet, an autumn rain is wet and cold. When in my 30's I probably would go, and did, regardless of the weather. Now my arthritis has something to say about what I do.

I never trust Late September, or Octobers forecast in the Northland! NO MATTER WHAT, when I go in those months, I pack for 80 degree weather, and 30 degree weather. I also bring two sets of Rain gear….

A rainy day in the BWCA is better than any day at work.

I always take the weather reports as a guide, with added grains of salt. It could be pouring the next lake over, you get a sprinkle, then the opposite the next day. Setting up and tearing down in the rain sucks, to be sure, but get your tarp out, set up, and wait things out. You can get your tarp up and then set up your tent under it, moving the tent to it's location after you get the fly on.

Mike

Sept 15th isn't late. Also, the general extended forecast is for warmer than avg temps for the end of the month.


To the OP, you can do what you wish but I wouldn't let it stop you. You're not THAT far from the vehicle when you're on Perent so if you want to leave a day early or something it's not a big deal at all. It's not like you're doing an 8 day loop and no way of cutting it short.

We have to drive a couple days to reach Canoe Country, so we generally take whatever the weather serves up. If we were closer and had the luxury of bumping the schedule a few days to dial in better weather, we might do it.

TZ

If you are just going into Perent Lake and basecamping, I would still go. Bring a large tarp, chairs, and a large tent for hanging out and playing cards or other games. I also find hanging a second tarp over the tent area if the rain is going to be really strong helps out. Pick your campsite wisely to make sure you have a site with a tent pad that won't collect standing water.

If it rains as much as the forecast says, and this is your first trip, you are not going to be a happy camper. The weather is the biggest factor in trip comfort.

I’ve been up there a zillion times and I would enjoy an wash-out trip as long as that was what I was planning for. But even then, it’s tough to stay comfortable and misery has to be an expected emotion.

Watch the forecast and make an alternate plan if it holds up. Go in the summer when the warm sun and gentle breezes make for an enjoyable experience.
Tom

Forecast graphic as of tuesday night. Uggg.

tumblehome: "

Forecast graphic as of tuesday night. Uggg."

Can you share the link to this source?
Thanks.
OT

Thursday afternoon into Friday morning looks absolutely misrable with training thunderstorms possible much of the time. There's still time for those storms to shift, but I would certainly have a backup plan ready. Rain will probably become more scattered and lighter Friday afternoon into Friday night. Maybe you could try to grab a bunkhouse Thursday night and make a gametime decision Friday whether or not you still want to go into the BWCA. There are plenty of great national forest campgrounds as a backup option. They're mostly first come first serve, but I'm sure they will have several openings with the forecast this weekend. Good luck with whatever you choose!

OldTripper: "

tumblehome: "


Forecast graphic as of tuesday night. Uggg."

Can you share the link to this source?
Thanks.
OT"

The link to the source of that graphic can be found here.-- look lower left above "Weather Story". It's usually a series of graphics that get updated 3-4 times a day. This one will likely be changed by the time most read this post. Read the times each graphic was posted at the bottom of each to get an idea if your dealing with the most recent data. Within 6-8 hours is "current" in the world of forecasting.

Here is also a PDF from the NWS in Duluth about the upcoming rain event.
PDF Packet

as well as a detailed forecast for Perent Lake area


Perent Lake area gridded forecast

WhiteWolf: "Here is also a PDF from the NWS in Duluth about the upcoming rain event.
PDF Packet

as well as a detailed forecast for Perent Lake area

Perent Lake area gridded forecast "

Thank you, WhiteWolf. That's exactly the info I was looking for.

If it rains that much in your area, the problem may not be what you think. We were there for such an event in a June about 10 years ago. Rained for 2 days. About 4-6 inches fell over the region with embedded thunderstorms, etc. (We were hunkered down on Grace Lake oblivious to what was happening outside of the BW.)

Inside the BW, the lakes came up about 3-4 inches in those 24-48 hours. Portages were streams of running water. On a spot on one portage you could hear the water running underground!

Outside the BW, several roads had been washed away! They told us at Sawbill Outfitters we could try to get back south, but even Highway 61 had been closed for a couple days. We made it down the Sawbill Trail carefully navigating around several chunks of road that had been partially washed out. Highway 61 was reopened (just that day!) after several repairs had been made on chunks that had washed out (Only gravel but thankfully passable.) There were still many barricades and places where the road narrowed around washed out chunks of shoulder and road edges.

If you go, I would be prepared to stay at the Kawishiwi Lake Campground for another day or two past your planned exit.

WhiteWolf: "Here is also a PDF from the NWS in Duluth about the upcoming rain event.
PDF Packet

as well as a detailed forecast for Perent Lake area

Perent Lake area gridded forecast "

I think the Holiday Inn sounds nice right about now. :)

I canceled a permit for EP 30th on Thursday the 15th and re- reserved for Saturday. Steady rain and wind over an extended period of time is miserable weather for paddling, camping, fishing, or portaging. I've done it before, and don't want to do it again.

I would not cancel, as the logistics to get away for a trip is usually the biggest challenge. I might (and have) altered the duration, route or destination due to the weather. But it is not my first time, and I travel with a fairly seasoned crew.

Are you traveling as a solo or as a group? Is it the first BWCA trip for everyone or most of the members of your group? Is anyone under 18? Is it anyone's first time camping?

The more yes answers you stack up, the more I would recommend trip alterations. Our most altered trip we stayed on Fall lake (outside of the quota season) and hit a few of the attractions in the Ely area.

It takes me 10 hours to travel to canoe country and because trips usually involve calculated decisions I do not think I would cancel. Bring extra layers, maybe pick up some contractor bags to line portage packs with, and get a really good test of your raingear. If you're closer, or have more flexibility in your life, I can see how pivoting to get better conditions would be nice.
I like to tell my Scouts on campouts that we don't get to choose the weather, and all we can do is try to make the best of it. Monthly campouts are a good gear lab for finding one's personal expedition kit.

After trying to renew the DWR on my PreCip jacket I picked up a 2.5 layer Gore-Tex jacket from OR. It zips on the sides all the way from the hem to halfway down your bicep so you can wear it in poncho mode.

I have the Sunday permit for Stuart, so a rise on rivers would be OK with me.

Regarding forecasts, at one point I asked my met student son for what he and all his buddies at OU liked for decent longer range forecasts. He pointed me to an experimental product from NWS - https://www.weather.gov/forecastpoints

You can pan/zoom the map and click exactly where you want a forecast. The probabilities graphs at the bottom are nice for getting a sense of trend. My only complaint is it's not very mobile friendly.

mirth: "Regarding forecasts, at one point I asked my met student son for what he and all his buddies at OU liked for decent longer range forecasts. He pointed me to an experimental product from NWS - https://www.weather.gov/forecastpoints


You can pan/zoom the map and click exactly where you want a forecast. The probabilities graphs at the bottom are nice for getting a sense of trend. My only complaint is it's not very mobile friendly."

Quite similar to what mirth posted above---

hourly graphic forecast

I will add that anything past 48-72 hours is highly subjective, many times much earlier with convection. Continue to check back as these forecasts update every 6 hours based on the NWS Blend Forecast model -- especially past 48-72 hours. Usually closer you will get NWS forecast expertise in hands on forecasting from an actual team of forecasters. The mission of NWS for most is local and short term-- not long term (past 72-96 hours) though the 7 day point and click tries it's best. It's better than 80-90% of the other longer term forecast out there, that's for sure.

For super geeks- read the NWS discussion thats updated at least 4 times a calendar day.-


Link to DLH NWS forecast discussion

Michwall2: "If it rains that much in your area, the problem may not be what you think. We were there for such an event in a June about 10 years ago. Rained for 2 days. About 4-6 inches fell over the region with embedded thunderstorms, etc. (We were hunkered down on Grace Lake oblivious to what was happening outside of the BW.)


Inside the BW, the lakes came up about 3-4 inches in those 24-48 hours. Portages were streams of running water. On a spot on one portage you could hear the water running underground!


Outside the BW, several roads had been washed away! They told us at Sawbill Outfitters we could try to get back south, but even Highway 61 had been closed for a couple days. We made it down the Sawbill Trail carefully navigating around several chunks of road that had been partially washed out. Highway 61 was reopened (just that day!) after several repairs had been made on chunks that had washed out (Only gravel but thankfully passable.) There were still many barricades and places where the road narrowed around washed out chunks of shoulder and road edges.


If you go, I would be prepared to stay at the Kawishiwi Lake Campground for another day or two past your planned exit. "

We were up there at that time, too. Actual radio (WTIP) warnings to BWCA trippers about epic rain. We heard on the radio about road washouts, but we were not expecting what we saw on Highway 61 with the prodigious amounts of water and the waterfalls coming off the rocks. We spent our last night on Omega after our tarp started to lose its effectiveness and under our tent became a waterbed. A trip for the ages...

Mike

Still no improvement in rain forecast. Here is the Wed pm weather graphics from the NWS

I go in on Monday.
I did notice in the link that WhiteWolf shared that the weather on Monday doesn't look too bad. Tuesday could get a little windy. I'll still keep an eye on the extended forecast up until launch day.

For you Ely area folks, have you had much rain yet?

Flood watch issued for Lake and Cook counties-


Flood Watch
National Weather Service Duluth MN
311 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

MNZ012-020-021-152115-
/O.NEW.KDLH.FA.A.0006.220916T0000Z-220917T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Cook and Lake-Southern Lake-Southern Cook-
Including the cities of Silver Bay, Isabella, Two Harbors, and Grand
Marais
311 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...A portion of northeast Minnesota, including the following
areas, Northern Cook and Lake, Southern Cook and Southern Lake.

* WHEN...From this evening through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- A few rounds of showers and storms are expected to move
through the region today into the weekend. Heavier rainfall
will be most likely tonight into Friday evening and may
result in flooding.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Melde

WhiteWolf: "

mirth: "Regarding forecasts, at one point I asked my met student son for what he and all his buddies at OU liked for decent longer range forecasts. He pointed me to an experimental product from NWS - https://www.weather.gov/forecastpoints



You can pan/zoom the map and click exactly where you want a forecast. The probabilities graphs at the bottom are nice for getting a sense of trend. My only complaint is it's not very mobile friendly."

Quite similar to what mirth posted above---


hourly graphic forecast


I will add that anything past 48-72 hours is highly subjective, many times much earlier with convection. Continue to check back as these forecasts update every 6 hours based on the NWS Blend Forecast model -- especially past 48-72 hours. Usually closer you will get NWS forecast expertise in hands on forecasting from an actual team of forecasters. The mission of NWS for most is local and short term-- not long term (past 72-96 hours) though the 7 day point and click tries it's best. It's better than 80-90% of the other longer term forecast out there, that's for sure.


For super geeks- read the NWS discussion thats updated at least 4 times a calendar day.-



Link to DLH NWS forecast discussion "

As a meteorologist I'm surprised how well informed you and several others on this board are. The NWS hourly forecast graphic is probably the best point and click forecast you can get.

I really want to know if this person ended up going or canceled their trip!

Rained lightly most of the day. A little heavier now.

Not sure if I’m going to stay in place or travel tomorrow, even if raining.

I’m on Long Island Lake at present. Saw a few people moving earlier in the day, and a couple that came near my site about 6pm, no doubt looking for a spot. As I was rushing sundown last night without the rain, I hope they found one.

Ya know what the best thing to do while it's raining?

Let it rain.
Bahahahaha

mirth: "Regarding forecasts, at one point I asked my met student son for what he and all his buddies at OU liked for decent longer range forecasts. He pointed me to an experimental product from NWS - https://www.weather.gov/forecastpoints


You can pan/zoom the map and click exactly where you want a forecast. The probabilities graphs at the bottom are nice for getting a sense of trend. My only complaint is it's not very mobile friendly."

Awesome resource! Thanks

jwettelrin89: "I really want to know if this person ended up going or canceled their trip!"

Was just thinking the same thing!

Wow, Pigeon River has already jumped up from 100 cfs to almost 400 cfs. Must be A LOT of rain. When I paddled (more like walked) it on the 8th, it was about 100 cfs. It rained all day on the 9th and only went up about 30 cfs and now it has jumped 300 cfs with this rain event!

It’s been raining lightly all afternoon, but it a light rain and it’s been a pleasant evening fishing in the rain. I definitely wouldn’t have canceled my trip.

After reading this I'm feeling even better about coming out early. I went in Tuesday AM (13th) and was planning to stay until Sunday. I had a great first two days, looked at the forecast and decided to cut it early and head home Thursday the 15th. As I had about a mile left, it really opened up and started pouring. I looked at the radar earlier today (16th) and was glad I did what I did.

Then again, I'm only a couple hours away so very different than those of you who drive days to get there.

The forecast was pretty darn accurate with widespread 1-4" in Lake and especially Cook Cty. Radar estimated rainfall --





Now with all the low level moisture and temps cooling to very near the dewpoint-- you can expect dense fog tonight- and maybe again tomorrow night if NW winds do not kick out the junk with drier air. Many like to bash weather forecasts- the NWS did an A+ on this system for the Upper Midwest.

I was on pine lake Wednesday - Sunday. If you are unsure where that is, it is the darkest red spot on that rainfall total graphic. It was....wet.

Had the whole lake to ourselves for the most part!